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22 अप्रैल 2012

How will French elections be decided ?


NEXT ROUND ON MAY 6

STORY HIGHLIGHTS       

After April 22 eight candidates eliminated; two candidates with most votes go into runoff May 6

  • Top issues are unemployment and purchasing power; and immigration to lesser extent
  • Polls give Socialist candidate Francois Hollande victories in both the first and second rounds
  • News media will call election when polls close at 8 p.m. local time on Sunday
Paris (CNN) -- French voters have been voting in the first round of the presidential election. CNN's Senior International Correspondent Jim Bittermann explains what the main themes of the election are, how the system works and who is likely to win.
What are the issues?
The economy, economy, economy. Basically, for months now the top issues have been unemployment and purchasing power. To a lesser extent -- and for some candidates, a greater extent -- immigration figures in the debate. On the extremes -- both left and right -- Europe is an issue that relates to the economic problems.
Who are the front-runners? Who is expected to win?
The polls at the moment are giving Socialist candidate Francois Hollande victories in both the first and second rounds of the voting. President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been gathering support in the past few weeks, was slipping back in the most recent polls. There are three other candidates in double digits: Jean-Luc Melenchon on the extreme left; Marine Le Pen on the extreme right and Francois Bayrou, a centrist.
How does the election system work?
In French presidential elections there are two rounds of voting, with a two-week break between the two votes that take place on Sundays. There are at the moment 10 candidates. After the first round of voting on April 22, eight candidates will be eliminated with only the two with most votes making it into the runoff election May 6.
When will we know the result of each round?
France has a fairly accurate system of exit polling that permits the news media to call the election at the moment the polls close at 8 p.m. local time. But these are exit polls and if the race turns out to be close, the media has been known in the past to start slipping into the French conditional tense, ie. "the winner might be..."!
How much interest is there in France in the election?
That depends entirely on how much of a political junkie one is. In many ways this is one of the most interesting races in decades: a sitting president fighting for his political life is the underdog while extremist candidates at both ends of the spectrum appear to be on the verge of collecting a third of all the votes cast in the first round.
On the other hand, one thing parties across the political spectrum worry about is turnout. The issues have been thoroughly debated and one reason the extremists are doing so well is that voters are not perceiving a clear distinction between the programs of Sarkozy and Hollande, even if the two main candidates have worked hard to make their differences clear.
What implications are there for the rest of Europe?
France and Germany have been at the heart of the drive to keep the European single currency sound and Europe on course. Both Sarkozy and Hollande are committed Europeans, but if either has to turn to the extremists on the right or left for help in winning the second round of the election, then all bets are off.
How has this election differed from previous ones?
In everyone's mind is 2002. Everyone presumed Socialist Lionel Jospin and the center-right incumbent president Jacques Chirac would be the two candidates to go into the runoffs. But when the first-round ballots were counted, extreme right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen faced off against Chirac, who won in the second.
If such a surprise were to happen again this time -- most likely provided by Melenchon on the left this time -- then there could be dramatic implications. It's hard to imagine he could end up being the president of France, but if he did, he is definitely against Europe the way it is constituted at the moment.

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