.CHARLESTON, S.C. — Concerns about the economy, the desire to defeat President Obama and Newt Gingrich’s performance in the recent debates helped voters in the South Carolina Republican primary make their decisions.
How the Poll Was Conducted
The South Carolina exit poll was based on questionnaires completed by voters on Saturday as they left primary election locations across the state.
The poll was conducted by Edison Research of Somerville, N.J., for the National Election Pool, which consists of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News.
The results are based on 2,381 Republican primary voters at 35 randomly selected polling places, interviewed as they were exiting each site.
In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, the results from such polls should differ by no more than plus or minus 3 percentage points from what would have been obtained by seeking to interview all voters who participated in South Carolina’s Republican primary. Results based on smaller subgroups, like specific demographic groups or supporters of a particular candidate, have a larger potential sampling error.
In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of voter opinion on an election day, like the reluctance of some voters to take time to fill out the questionnaire, may introduce other sources of error into the poll.
Prof. Monika L. McDermott of Fordham University and Michael R. Kagay of Princeton, N.J., assisted The New York Times in its polling analysis.
The contest was fluid until the bitter end — more than half chose their candidate within the last few days, according to a survey of voters.
Mr. Gingrich was supported by men and women alike, evangelical Christians and Roman Catholics, those who support the Tea Party and those who are neutral about it.
Mitt Romney, who until earlier last week was considered the front-runner in South Carolina, did best among moderates, the very affluent and those who oppose the Tea Party.
Voters in the South Carolina primary were more concerned about the economy than they had been four years ago. Nearly two-thirds of them said the economy was the most important issue determining their vote. Four years ago, the economy was the top issue, selected by 40 percent of voters in the Republican primary.
In 2008, fewer voters were feeling the economic pinch. Eleven percent said then that they were falling behind financially; now a fifth said they were, at a time when the state’s unemployment is above the national average, at 9.9 percent. Three in 10 voters in Saturday’s primary said someone in their household had lost a job or had been laid off in the last three years. Three-quarters were very worried about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next few years.
Even more than in Iowa and New Hampshire, the top priority for the Republicans in South Carolina was defeating President Obama, and Mr. Gingrich did best with those voters. He also fared well with the voters who were looking for a candidate with the “right experience.”
The Republican primary in South Carolina is open; voters do not have to be registered as a Republican to vote. So with no Democratic primary this year, there were more independents voting in the Republican primary than in 2008. A quarter described themselves as “independent” or “other”; only 18 percent had done so in 2008.
Independents divided their support among Mr. Gingrich, who received about 3 in 10 of their votes, and Ron Paul and Mr. Romney, who each got about a quarter of their votes.
Nearly two-thirds of the voters described themselves as evangelical or born-again Christian. In 2008, 60 percent had indicated they were evangelical or born-again Christians. Mr. Gingrich was backed by about 40 percent of these voters; about a fifth of them voted for Mr. Romney. Although Rick Santorum was endorsed by a group of evangelical leaders in Texas, he received only a fifth of the votes from evangelical Christians.
Six in 10 voters said it was important that a candidate shared their religious beliefs, and nearly half of them backed Mr. Gingrich, who has converted to Catholicism; about a fifth went for Mr. Romney, a Mormon; and nearly the same for Mr. Santorum, also a Catholic. In 2008, Mr. Romney came in third in the Republican primary, when Senator John McCain placed first and Mike Huckabee came in second.
For nearly two-thirds of voters, the recent debates were an important factor in their decision; for about 1 in 8 they were the most important factor. Mr. Gingrich was considered by many to have done particularly well in the debates; he received the votes of about half of those for whom the debates were important.
The exit poll, conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of the television networks and The Associated Press, surveyed voters as they were leaving polling places.
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